I had an exchange of messages with an analyst/trader at BlackRock today. I was asked about BTC, Elon Musk, and macroeconomics. I thought it may be useful to post part of my replies here.
Bitcoin blockchain: an introduction
I wrote extensively on this subject (Bitcoin & Blockchain – ZeMing M. Gao). I even wrote a book.
May I invite you to read the following sample articles? If you disagree with what I wrote, that’s fine; at least you will have a glimpse of what my view is.
BTC is a combination of a cult and a scam
The fraudulent fiat “money” and fake “digital gold”
Bitcoin and electronic cash
Stock Market Amplified Ponzi Schemes (SMAPs)
Tokenized Credit-based Community Money.
I am a builder and thinker. I’ve been involved in a startup project that is closely related to the last article above.
If you are further interested, I would like to recommend that you get a copy of my book (not trying to sell you a book, because the price barely covers the cost, and the Kindle version is free):
BIT & COIN: Merging Digitality and Physicality
About BTC and BSV
Frankly, I’m surprised that you actually read the articles. You are a trader. I am a philosopher and a builder. I have never seen a trader who is genuinely interested in my views. And I don’t blame them, because we look at two entirely different worlds. Not just two different angles of the same world, but two entirely different worlds. And my views don’t help traders by a long shot. As a matter of fact, my views might even hurt the trading prospects, and that’s why I myself don’t trade.
For this reason, take what I say with a bunch of salt.
First, you mentioned “original BTC.” I don’t know what your definition of that is. BTC is BTC, a version of Bitcoin. It is not the real Bitcoin, but a corrupt version of the original Bitcoin of Satoshi. It is a fact, and I know it (BSV is the original Bitcoin and the only genuine Bitcoin). But that fact doesn’t matter to traders, because the concept of “originality” has nothing to do with trading.
The truth is not only historical but also deeply technological (I try to avoid using the word ”technical” because what that word automatically brings to the mind of a trader is absolutely the opposite of what I try to express here).
For cryptocurrency trading, however, the technological and historical truth doesn’t really matter. Whatever has been recognized in the market and traded is the whole reality. Who cares about what the original Bitcoin is? Only technologists like me do.
I care because I care about the actual utility of any technology to the world and humanity. That’s why I focus on Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV). In the view field of a trader like you, BSV probably doesn’t even appear on the radar screen.
However, I’m not saying that the technological and economic reality of a blockchain is never relevant to trading. Ultimately, the substance will bear on the appearance. See, Price matters.
About conflicting views of crypto trading and fundamentals
I still believe traders like you don’t need my point of view. They are fundamentally incompatible. For example, the truth is that you will need to spend a minimum of 5000 hours of deep investigation to understand what true Bitcoin is.
No, I’m not talking about studying the trading volumes, financial models, etc. Those don’t count for this particular purpose.
Rather, I am talking about a real study of the technology, law, economics, game theory, and philosophy of Bitcoin blockchain. Only a handful of people in the world have done that.
And I don’t encourage traders to do that at all, because, in the end, whatever understanding you may have gained by doing that kind of study is not going to improve your trades. Might even hurt. So why bother?
I’m not cynical. I’m just being honest.
About geopolitics
Yes, I agree that under the Trump administration, the collapse is likely to happen faster. But that’s not a wrongdoing. That’s just accelerated exposure of lies to reality, because making the current system continue as it is only grows the problem bigger with a deceptive cover and makes the eventual collapse even more devastating. Propping up the current system is not a good solution. It is a worse solution because it only makes the eventual collapse even bigger.
I happen to have written something about this recently: The American reality; and The American addiction and the trade war.
I say this not because I expect you to agree with me. You most likely disagree with me. Yet I feel safe to say this to you because smart traders make money either way.
About Elon Musk
About Musk, my limited views about him can be found here: “Elon Musk”.
Musk is mostly sincere, and extremely creative and charismatic. But he’s wrong about Bitcoin and blockchain. Like many others, Musk thinks he understands blockchain and Bitcoin, but he doesn’t.
There’s no denying that Musk is highly intelligent. But the appearance of his intelligence is magnified by his influence (and vice versa). The trouble is that the magnification creates an illusion that he understands everything. He does not. When it comes to Bitcoin and blockchain, he is probably just slightly better than an average mainstream commentator, but still miles away from the truth.
About macroeconomics
You asked me to comment on the interest rate and macroeconomics. Although I do have my views, I don’t think you really need to hear them. I suspect that you have your own views and are unlikely to change them.
My first view is that the existing geopolitical, economic, and financial systems, including the fiat system, are collapsing. The only way for the US and much of the world to get out of the debt is by high inflation. There is no other way. The political system and the human nature of the masses simply are incapable of implementing and carrying out a principled and disciplined solution. Not going to happen. Under Republicans, the US has a better chance. But still, I’m pessimistic about it.
From a biblical point of view (I am Christian, and I don’t try to hide my identity), I believe the world as we know it is unlikely to exist 20 years (perhaps even five years) from now. See The Days and Hours of the End Times, and Marks of the end time – Is cashless society a mark of the end time?
The biblical view, however, is fundamentally optimistic, not pessimistic, because it invokes a different dimension.
I am more concerned with the existence and overall viability of humanity, not the short-term or even long-term interest rates and economies. I ask myself this very simple question: what will survive (continue to exist and be needed) in the new world in which the existing systems have perished.
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